The views expressed in this article are author’s own and do not necessarily represent the editorial policy of Naij.com.

The handwriting is on the wall for those discerning enough to see its bold imprint. The current crisis rocking the ruling APC can only lead to one foreseeable conclusion – an implosion that will see the man at the center of the controversial inauguration fallout decamp from the APC.

If it does not happen now, it will eventually.

I know some people reading this piece may see me as ‘a prophet of doom’ (depending on the political platform they belong to), but I am neither a naysayer nor a Nostradamus.

For Nigerians who can honestly assess the current political imbroglio in the both chambers of the National Assembly will see what will tear the APC apart: the political intrigue which threw up Senator Bukola Saraki after he plotted and schemed to become the Senate president with Senator Ike Ekweremandu of the opposition PDP as the deputy Senate president.

We are all witnesses to how the debacle is playing out. To many in the APC, Senator Saraki’s decision to side-step his party to collude with the PDP which his party defeated in the 2015 elections is the highest treason a party man can commit. For many in the party, Senator Saraki has stepped on the tiger’s tail.

By pursuing his ambition so ruthlessly and conspiratorially with the opposition PDP, he is deemed to have committed the original sin for which he will not be forgiven. But Saraki himself is not a small fish in the turbulent waters of Nigerian politics. He is also a big player in a political environment dominated by godfathers, big egos and Ghana-must-gos filled with naira notes that oil the patronage system. He is no pushover. That is why he plotted his way to become the third most powerful citizen in the country today. That is why he refused to back down when his party decided to he was not fit to contest the position of the Senate presidency. For this singular reason of Saraki’s obstinacy, the APC is in crisis that is threatening to cause an implosion.

No doubt, the emergence of Saraki as Senate president and Honourable Yakubu Dogara as the Speaker of the House of Representatives has changed the political calculations in the Buhari government. The implication will be far-reaching and will begin to manifest itself in the coming years.

Already, there have been speculations that the intrigues which led to the emergence of Saraki and Dogara were in preparation for  the 2015 elections. One cannot discountenance the speculations.

While the struggle to position for future political calculation may have informed the scheming and intrigues we have seen so far in the politics of the National Assembly, it is not going to be as easy as that. For one, there are too many gladiators in the APC to make any prediction of what the future portends an easy bet.

If anything, the crisis rocking the party indicates that Nigerians should expect more surprises if the party does not get its act together and close ranks. But it appears the factions are not ready to sheathe their swords. There are too many factions struggling for the soul of the party.

After the unity had been achieved during the campaign for 2015 presidential election when the common enemy was the former President Goodluck Jonathan, the situation seems to have degenerated very rapidly since the controversial National Assembly inauguration.

Two dominant factions that have since emerged after the election. The faction backed by the national leader of the APC, Bola Tinubu, seems to be at daggers drawn with the Saraki-led faction that is actively supported by the former vice president, Abubakar Atiku, whose faction appears to be the main beneficiary of the new senate leadership.

Since the House inauguration, the relationship between the two factions has fallen apart. All attempts to reconcile the parties have since failed, with both digging deeper into their trenches. Only recently, Senator Saraki continued his peace mission to meet former President Olusegun Obasanjo. But hours after the meeting, reports filtered in that the meeting had ended not resolving the intractable crisis. There is no doubt that Bola Tinubu feels hard done by how the inauguration played out when it was thought that his preferred candidates for the House leadership, Senator Ahmad Lawan and Femi Gbajabiamila, lost the Senate presidency and House speakership positions respectively.

Much worse, and to add insult to the political injury, are the intrigues that threw up Senator Ike Ekweremandu as the deputy Senate president. There is a feeling that Senator Saraki sacrificed loyalty to the party for his personal ambition. Hardcore APC members are peeved that the PDP, that was thoroughly beaten at the election, could come through the back door to reap where it did not sow.

The situation in the Assembly today is what the Tinubu faction is not going to forgive easily. Nigerians are also angry that the change they voted is being hijacked by elements they cannot trust. In the eyes of his party men and some Nigerians, Senator Saraki’s conniving with the PDP to subvert his party’s consensus arrangement is high treason for which they think he should be punished. Some see his emergence as a way to curtail Tinubu’s alleged influence on the party.

That is why the issue will not go away soon. The current crisis can be seen as a struggle for dominance by the gladiators in the party. The way in which the issue is resolved will determine the future of APC in the coming years. But looking through the crystal ball of Nigerian politics, the future of the party is hazy. As of now, nothing is certain.

One thing is clear — if the crisis lingers, the following will be the likely scenario that may play out in the next four years and beyond, and lead to one predicable end: if the warring factions continue to bicker and stick to their guns, some of them will have to quit the party. Indeed, I foresee Saraki decamping from the APC to either form another party or join an existing one — but certainly not the PDP.

If Saraki decides to leave the APC, the PDP will not be the beneficiary of such a move. For now and in the future, the poor public perception of the PDP, occasioned by sixteen years of misrule, will continue to haunt the party. Saraki is too smart to return. In the extreme, if the crisis is not resolved, the Tinubu faction may also pull out of the current arrangement in the coming years. But let’s hope the party resolves their issues for the sake of our democracy and the success of the President Buhari administration.