(Graph Source; Bratton and Houessou (2014) in www.africaneconomicoutlook.org/en/outlook)

I find the above graph very useful for understanding the current shape of Nigeria’s democracy. Let me break it down a little bit.

Demand and supply are perhaps the most basic principles of economics. Demand is essentially the quantity of a product or service desired and supply is the quantity of a product or service supplied to meet the desire (demand). Price, another very important principle in economics simply reflects the point demand and supply meet. This principle of market economics offers us so much to reflect on, in understanding how Nigeria’s democracy will potentially evolve.

Lets say the product in question here is the Demo, and its value propositions include, among other things, the rule of law, fundamental human rights, security, and economic & social inclusion. Nigerians currently demand about 52 pieces of the Demo. Unfortunately, the suppliers who were elected to supply this product only have 23 pieces to supply. Supply is just a little above half of demand. No buyer wants to be in a market where demand exceeds supply because ideally in such markets, the buyers will need to part with more to get the same level of satisfaction. For the Demo in Nigeria, this is how things are.

Demand and supply are also very dynamic. They do change. In this case, there are four possible outcomes.

Option 1: Demand and supply can increase.

Option 2: Demand can increase and supply can reduce

Option 3: Demand can reduce and supply can increase

Option 4: Demand and supply can reduce.

Maybe a fifth but very unlikely outcome will be – demand and supply can be static. This is quite unlikely because I think something has to give.

If I was to put my money on an outcome for the Demo in Nigeria, I will say both will increase, but the huge supply deficit will remain. I hope I am proved wrong. I will focus on some demand drivers.

The demand market is increasing as more people are beginning to seek the value proposition the Demo offers. The greater proportion of the very youthful market is beginning to see that the Demo’s benefits should be beyond fundamental human rights. They believe the benefits should facilitate economic inclusion and broad-based wealth creation. What’s more, technology, especially mobile, is offering a huge platform for the demand side actors to press home their demands, literally.

In this market, supply and demand may never meet. That is ideal, but quite impossible. Demand will always exceed supply, I think. There are exceptions to this position from the graph above, but in my opinion, the more of the Demo we get, the more we will demand. However, effort needs to be made to close this deficit. For a country that has been in this system for about 16 years, the deficit is frightening.

There needs to be balancing, not just of budgets, but also of democratic expectations. This is very serious business.

– Obinna Igwebuike is Managing Partner at Sawubona Advisory Services Limited, a Research and Advisory Company based in Lagos, Nigeria. Follow this writer on Twitter: @ObinnaIgwebuike