ABJ, normally abbreviation for Abuja, now stands for Anyone but Jonathan but JOW refers to Jonathan or War.

I first heard ABJ meaning Anyone but Jonathan in a bus on May 29, 2014. Some passengers travelling from Ipaja to Ikeja argued heatedly and a lady asked the man sitting in front of her whether he would not have done something to mark the day – at least for Nigerian children – if he were Mr. President. For a while, there was silence; then the man replied that he is not the president.

“I know you are not, but you know something? Birds of a feather flock together: a mediocre connects with the kind and likewise corrupt minds think alike and see nothing wrong with corruption. The average Nigerian is not corrupt; the average Nigerian would do better than Mr. President. I tell whoever cares that I could do better than President Jonathan. I have a song I titled ABJ meaning Anyone But Jonathan,” and suddenly ABJ, ABJ started echoing. A passenger said the woman should sing the song, but the crowd paid no heed, but kept chanting ABJ, ABJ!

Niger Delta militant, Alhaji Asari Dokubo said in 2014 that President Goodluck Jonathan must serve a second term or Nigeria would see fire. But before him, the president’s handlers must have reached that conclusion and took steps in the direction; perhaps latching on the old maxim that says whoever wants peace must prepare for war! 

Alhaji Bamanga Tukur became PDP chairman under the JOW policy: stop all contenders, in that case Alhaji Atiku Abubakar’s presidential dream. Atiku and Tukur hail from Adamawa State. With Tukur as chairman, Atiku has no reason to aspire to be president under PDP. A politician to boot, Atiku hatched his revenge and other forces joined a solid struggle to pull the rug from Mr. President’s feet.

The birth of the New PDP was the crystallization point: PDP leads the ABJ coalition. Some PDP governors challenged the president frontally and the fear was that they would team behind one of their own. Also, at the National Assembly, The House rallied against the president, with Speaker Alhaji Aminu Tambuwal as arrowhead so that the threat to a second term of President Jonathan was clear and deep within the PDP.

Recognizing the influence most governors weld in their states, the president tried to get one sympathetic to him to head the Governors’ Forum – a direct attack on Rivers’ Governor Rotimi Amaechi – chairman of the forum. Essentially 35 governors held an election and two winners emerged to give an indication of what Nigeria 2015 elections portend. Two points; one, anti-Jonathan coalition is massive and includes strong PDP forces and yet Mr. President would play dirty to have his way. If majority governors could not win clean, how much easier for majority Nigerians vote against and yet he wins! The point is that only strong forces with a strong personality could dare and succeed.

President Jonathan stood on slippery ground to allow a primary decide his party’s presidential flag-bearer. To remove that hurdle, the presidency allowed PDP governors to take control of their states and give him a free ride on the party’s ticket; hence the sole candidacy and inevitable victory.

Thus, before any militant threatened that President Jonathan must serve a second term or Nigeria sees red, the presidency had served notice that Nigeria 2015 is do or die affair.

The ABJ-JOW conflict is Jonathan versus PDP on one side, and APC and Muhammadu Buhari versus Jonathan on the other. To that extent, we recall the PDP has been in the saddle for sixteen years and made public the determination to dominate Nigerian politics for 60 years.

Even die-hard PDP members worry that Nigeria has not fared well in the decade and half the party has been in power. Since 2003, in rally after rally, party chieftains shout PeeDeePee and the response that rent the air was share the money!  Did PDP leaders do anything to disabuse the minds of Nigerians that the party is primarily to loot public treasuries? No! Undeniably the performance both at the centre and in most of the states it controls has been below average.

In most local governments, chairmen visit the councils after collecting the monthly allocation which is shared and everyone goes his way and return the next month for another allocation sharing session. Nigeria is predominantly rural. In most communities, life is brutish because there is virtually no government presence. The PDP controlled most local governments nationwide. If truth must be told, the party must take responsibility for the poor state of affairs nationwide.

Security challenges in the northeast are peculiar, but insecurity is nation wide. While the world is celebrating 40 per cent drop in poverty in the last four years, it does not seem Nigerian masses saw any reduction – not with high unemployment and under employment. That grade level four officers earn below N20,000 monthly (and they form the lucky few), numerous workers in the private sector take N10,000 monthly or less which gives clear proof of the state of affairs – vis-à-vis mass poverty and vast under employment.

The woman who authored ABJ was bitter over the president’s non-performance. Had he performed, the president would have had an easy ride. Had he delivered on electricity, housing, health care, roads, et cetera – there would be no ABJ. But the president could not deliver due to high corruption and looting under his nose. And so, JOW misses the mark and increases and hardens the opposition.

We recall Lagos 2011 governorship election. ACN chieftains decided Governor Babatunde Fashola would not fly the party’s flag. Lagosians made clear that either he flew the party’s flag or ACN kissed Alausa governor’s office bye. Fashola did not bribe nor sponsore protests for his cause. He did not fight back. Just his first term spoke for him and that was it.

Persons desperate for Mr. President’s reelection are waking up late. It is possible some of the advisers told the president to increase the burdens on Nigerians otherwise did he need to be told that unbridled looting would hurt the economy and bring untold suffering to the most vulnerable segments of society, that wherever impunity is a way of life, gross irresponsibility and decay prevail that tantamount to living in hell!

As the February 14 INEC date approached, there was no doubt about the outcome. It has been said that some people clinked glasses over the postponement – seen as the first step to turning the tide. Surely he who fights and runs away has a chance to fight another day!  

Since ancient times, it has been established that a man’s worst enemies are of the household and closest friends. And ABJ-JOW is essentially that – from the PDP to Ijaw brotherhood.

The Niger Armed Forces containing Boko Haram in weeks mean the trouble was leadership; political will. But energy was deployed trying to present Buhari as a fundamentalist and sponsor of the terrorist gang.

President Jonathan had the opportunity to give Nigerian children – from primary to university level – a pair of shoes to mark Nigerian centenary. Just $500 million would build a shoe factory in Otueke or Okirika. The sum represents a fraction of what is being disbursed to friends. No TAN would be needed to tell the world that a man who had no shoes when he was a child is giving shoes to his entire nation when he was made president.

Elections are not lost and won on the voting day. Elections 2015 were lost and won a long time ago. Shifting the goalpost or changing the referee cannot affect the outcome. ABJ-JOW was and remains the decisive issue. And the joke is on J!

• Anyamele wrote from Lagos.