An internationally reputed political risk research and consulting firm, Eurasia Group, has postulated that Gen. Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressive Congress, APC, to win the March 28 presidential election against its earlier estimation.

“We change our election forecast from a narrow win for incumbent Goodluck Jonathan to a victory for opposition leader, Muhamadu Buhari (60% probability). The electoral map is tilting towards Buhari in the swing regions of the southwest and middle belt, while high turnout in his core northern base will offset Jonathan’s advantage in the Niger Delta," a statement from the group’s Practice Head in Africa, Philippe de Pontet, says.

“While a Buhari administration’s reliance on technocratic, business-oriented senior officials will lead to constructive policy initiatives, we keep our long-term trajectory at neutral given the downside risks to oil production and policy implementation challenges. Buhari edges ahead. We had long viewed Goodluck Jonathan as a favorite to win reelection, but a number of factors now lead us to believe the edge has swung in Buhari’s favor.”

"Our expectation of a narrow Jonathan win was predicated on several factors that are losing some saliency late in the campaign. Chief among them is the incumbency and financial advantages of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). While this still helps Jonathan, its impact is blunted by the intensity of support for Buhari, lackluster grassroots campaigning by the PDP, and new anti-rigging measures by the electoral commission.

“New permanent voting cards and card readers will sharply reduce the level of rigging seen in 2011, when Jonathan beat Buhari in a landslide. Equally important are the enthusiasm gap between the candidates and widespread desire for change. Tepid support for Jonathan, even within his own party, means there is no guarantee that patronage will translate into votes,” it noted.