He is popularly known for what many have called a lucky break into the corridors of power. Now, will luck play in favour of Dr Goodluck Johnathan of Nigeria for the second time in the coming elections in 2015?

Jonathan is the incumbent president of Africa’s most populous country and many spectators and political commentators argue that luck paved way for the president of Nigeria.

Following the demise of the erstwhile former president of Nigeria Umaru Musa Yar’Adua in 2010, opportunity availed itself for the then Vice President, Dr Jonathan to constitutionally assume the most exalted public office.

As deputy Governor of Bayelsa State, which lies within the oil belt region in the Southern geopolitical zone of Nigeria, a similar event had made way for Dr Jonathan to become Governor of the oil rich State in 2005.

Although, this time around it was the excesses of the then Governor Alamieyeseigha which was shredded in corruption, that lead to Jonathan’s ascension to the office of Governor.

The question now is will luck or faith do it again for Dr Goodluck?

Forecasting against the coming elections in 2015, things are not looking assured for the man whose political history has been surrounded by luck.

Dr Jonathan’s administration encountered many bumps right from its inauguration. From the Cabal saga which led to the dissolution of the National Executive Council (NEC) following the death of his predecessor, to other economic and developmental issues.

Remarkably, he survived the ordeals and completed the tenure of his boss, the late Umaru Yar’Adua and went on to win his first election as the president of Nigeria in an election that was greeted with mixed feelings from Nigerians and non-Nigerians.

Following Dr Jonathan’s electoral victory, Nigeria remains in turmoil with things going from bad to worse. The degenerated state of security, increasingly growing terrorism, and corruption continue to top the list of concerns.

In particular, the government’s failure to constrain the activities of the dreaded Islamist sect Boko Haram has continued to raise eyebrows both within national and international political discourse.

For a country which continues to be unpleasantly divided along the lines of ethnic and religious differences, the sustainability of Nigeria’s nascent democracy is gradually being undermined.

Re-elections Speculations

The growing speculations of Dr Jonathan’s intention to run for a second time as president of Nigeria is now enhanced by recent endorsements from the PDP’s Board of Trustees, National Executive Council (NEC) and other organs of the party.

What this means in effect is that the party has adopted the incumbent president as its sole candidate in the coming presidential elections in February 2015.

According to Thisdaylive, an online version of a Nigerian news media, ‘President Jonathan in acceptance speech described his adoption as the sole presidential candidate as an ‘atomic bomb’, stating that he was humbled and overwhelmed by his unanimous endorsement’.

 Nonetheless, his handling of the Islamic sect and insecurity concern, in the next few months could be a determining factor for any prospects of a re-election in 2015.

This is not to say however, that there have not been noticeable achievements worthy of celebration. The on-going revamping of the railways, overhauling of the power sector, radical intervention in the oil and aviation sectors are to name but a few among other developments.

While these may look good for the president’s manifesto in 2015, in reality, the bone of contention will lie in the president’s winning or losing the on-going fight against terrorism in Nigeria and its handling of corruption.

For instance, the successful killing of Osama Bin Laden in 2011 undoubtedly played a role in the re-election of President Obama for his second term as president of the most powerful nation on the planet in 2012.

One of Nigeria’s most vocal critics, often regarded as the conscience of the nation is the eminent Nobel Laureate in literature, Professor Wole Soyinka. Professor Soyinka explained that ‘the governance of the nation was in serious trouble’, in an interview with Christiane Amanpour of CNN International, on the organisation’s YouTube channel earlier in the year.

He added that the ‘government…is not only in denial mentally but in denial about certain obvious steps to take, in response to questions on the handling of the Islamist sect and concerns surrounding the kidnapping of over 200 school girls by the sect.

It is exactly 5 months since the girls were abducted from their secondary school by Boko Haram, yet, there is no concreate information on the location of the girls or steps the government is taking to ensure their release.

The Challenge between PDP and APC

Besides the security challenges, Dr Jonathan is set to also contest against the new opposition party, the All Progressive Congress (APC).

The APC evolved as a coalition of four opposition parties in 2013 to present a formidable force against the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) to which Dr Jonathan serves as leader.

The PDP has held on to power, winning successive elections in the country’s longest democratic reign since her return to democracy rule in 1999 exactly 16 years ago.

The merger involved the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), and a faction of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA).

Social media backlash from ordinary Nigerian citizens, activists, civil society organisations continue to reveal the level disappointment at the performance of the leading party PDP in the last 16 years of its rule.

Many more Nigerians are unhappy about the low quality of governance that has being administered under the present administration.

An APC defeat will definitely mark a historic moment in Africa’s most populous country. Nonetheless, the probability of this happening in 2015 remains uncertain.

For Mr Taye Obateru, a Media expert, in spite of the merger, ‘the reality on ground which most Nigerians know is that even though many are dissatisfied with Jonathan’s performance there is no serious challenge as at today that is likely to stop him from winning next year’s election.

One reason for this may be because the new party has only succeeded in regurgitating the same circle of leaders who have held public offices in the past. The issue however, is that, like the PDP the performanceof such aspirants in the past continue to generate mixed reactions.

Following this trend, there is nothing really new about the leadership of the opposition. They are familiar faces in the Nigerian politics who had contested previously and lost to the incumbent president.

The opposition is yet to demonstrate its capacity to provide an alternative governance approach that will exceed the performance of the incumbent.

Instead, some of its stakeholders have been at the centre of acquisitions of statements capable of aggravation and inciting violence.

Obateru remarked that, ‘The opposition is weak and the Boko Haram problem which many (rightly or wrongly) see as being orchestrated against a Christian President from the Niger Delta, may actually work in his favour’.

Ultimately, with the wave of on-going events relating to the 2015 elections, one will have to sit back and enjoy the dramatic spectacle that will unfold in the next few months leading to the elections.

Shola Abidemi Olabode

Views expressed are solely the author’s