It's so keenly contested, this year's election, that merely betting on the odds is sure to leave you with an elevated blood pressure.

President Jonathan has, in recent days, broken his usual que sera sera disposition and has taken to chest-thumping. Why, just the other day, he said quite interestingly on BBC that he was sure to win.

And the APC camp sniggered.

But does he know something that we don't? Might the smiling president have an ace up his sleeve? The Cable has given five reasons why President Jonathan may well retain his position as president.


1. The Incumbency Factor:
It's common knowledge that it is an uphill task, unseating an incumbent. You can ask Mugabe. Or Obasanjo, for that matter. Some of the privileges of incumbency include the ability to postpone elections if it looks like the odds might not favor you.

2. The 'Nicodemus Factor':
The Cable seems to believe that Jonathan has more supporters than are publicly declared, because most of them are afraid of the fanaticism that follows politically motivated demonstrations. As the paper put it, "In some parts of the country, those known to be supporting Jonathan have been attacked in the past. People lost their lives and property in 2011 for supporting Jonathan."

This is similar to the biblical Nicodemus, who supported Jesus in the shadows, for fear (presumably) of alienation from the class of people he mingled with.

3. The Anti-North Feelings of the South/Middle Belt:
As The Cable puts it, "although Buhari now has a larger and broader base, there are those who will not vote for him simply because they think the north has a “born to rule” mentality. No matter their misgivings with a Jonathan government, they will be happy not to have another northerner as president “so soon”.

Aptly put.

Factors four and five include stomach infrastructure and APC's exaggerated sense of control of the South-West.

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Source: #TheCable