The 2015 elections will be close, this is almost a fact. Despite the chest thumping across party lines, two major parties are going into a national election without the guarantee of success, a first for Nigeria’s democracy. In such close elections, you will usually find a core voting for either party, but they will normally even themselves out. This means a minority pool of undecided voters hold the key to deciding Nigeria’s next president.

For the last four years (and one year before that), Goodluck Jonathan has been Nigeria’s President, and we must not forget that. He won the 2011 election in the back of significant goodwill and was described as a breath of fresh air. His transformation agenda promised a plethora of promises from uninterrupted power supply to job creation. As his term comes to an end, we must question how much of those promises have been met? Instead of better power supply, Nigerians still live in darkness and over 50% of our young people are unemployed. To make matters worse, we have suffered the biggest threat to lives and property, with over 15,000 people dead and countless, including over 200 girls in Chibok, abducted. Apart from this, there is an inability to sanction erring subordinates; Abba Moro presided over a recruitment exercise designed to exploit young Nigerians where people died; the petroleum minister continues to preside over an opaque oil industry where $20 billion has allegedly been stolen; these government officials continue to strut like peacocks around the Presidential Villa. Ultimately, for those considering vote for President Jonathan, the decision should be based on his record of performance.

For those who wonder how much General Buhari can “CHANGE” Nigeria, they will point to the people around him, many of whom previously carried PDP membership cards. They will suggest a disconnection with the economic trends and a tendency for ethnic or religious bias. But these forget several critical elements. The most important driver of improved governance is the ability to citizens to reward good performance with continuity and punish poor performance with rejection. A vote for Muhammadu Buhari and his party, APC, signify a shift in the balance of power. It will not only elevate the quality of governance, but also drive the new government, if elected, to perform creditably. We must also be practical about the type of leader Nigeria needs and can elect at this time. The country needs a decisive leader, who is respected, or even feared by the political class; one who has the will to lay the foundation for a period of sustained development; that will not shirk from responsibility or flinch at taking difficult decisions. At a time like this, we need a leader that can move the people, show a fierce pride in being Nigerian and identify and support the right talent to drive our economy. General Buhari will come with flawed associates, Nigeria’s reality needs such flawed comrades to win national elections; his party will present a mixed bag of performance, but somewhere in there is the policy consistency needed for the states and the centre to work in harmony.

I have some exposure to his plans for Nigeria, if elected. The plan to support agriculture with guaranteed pricing for strategic crops and improved land administration principles will undoubtedly reduce unemployment and imports, two critical elements in the process of repairing our economy. Not only will he declare his assets, he will ensure appointees within his government do the same. In fighting corruption and wastage, the optical representation of leadership is critical. Nigeria’s next President must be someone trusted by the people to put Nigeria first and tackle corruption. It is also important that we have a leader who appoints a competent team through a meritocratic process. A Buhari administration is filled with endless possibilities, with a cabinet meeting that could have fine minds like Muhammad Pate, Kayode Fayemi, Bolaji Abdullahi, Hadiza Bala-Usman, Raji Fashola, General Dambazau and Ben Akabueze; to mention a few. Perhaps, we can finally start what will be a long and difficult project of building a proper nation.

Personally, I had three opportunities to vote Muhammadu Buhari. The first time, in 2003, I voted for Gani Fawehinmi; in 2007, Atiku Abubakar had my vote; and in 2011, Nuhu Ribadu was my chosen candidate. Each of those times, I chose the man I believed to be the option. This time, I have chosen Muhammadu Buhari, not because he is without blemish, but because he is the best of the available candidates. The next few years will be difficult for us; a threat of global terror hangs on our head; crude, out staple revenue earner is in a state of flux; our fragile economy will take a beating; and tough decisions will need to be made. In times like this, Nigeria needs a leader we can trust; one whose wisdom and calmness ensures we do what is best for the country. Today, from the names available, only one person has a chance of being that leader. This is why I am voting Muhammadu Buhari, and why I think you should do the same.

Akin Oyebode tweets via @A01379