Before Independence in 1960, the Igbo nation was one of the three majors in Nigeria. The two others are the Hausa-Fulani and the Yoruba but the fear of Igbo domination was strong in those days.

By Independence, Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe was the most pre-eminent Nigerian leader but politics being a game of numbers, the office of Prime Minister went to Sir Tafawa Balewa, a Hausa holden unto the Sultan, Sir Ahmadu Bello and plenipotentiary of Nigerian post-independence politics. In deference to his eminence as also in recognition of Igbo status, the office of Governor General and later, titular President was conferred Dr. Zik.

The 1964 elections and the Western crises that snowballed into national cataclysm culminating in the Biafran war reversed Igbo position in national geo-politics so that smaller groups soon overtook the erstwhile power centre in Nigerian geopolitics. Of the three major ethnic groups in Nigeria and later further drawn to six zones, the Igbo or South-east is the only one that has not produced Nigeria’s head of state. Some people point to General John Thomas Aguiyi-Ironsi, Nigeria’s first military ruler as Igbo leadership but Aguiyi belonged to a Nigerian military that was waned from ethnic cleavages. But even so, Aguiyi was murdered by six months in office so that the irrefutable fact remains that the Igbo race became the undeniable underdog.

Nigeria’s geo-politics of the 60s and 70s cannot replay the deviance again; that is to say, no group can shot itself to power and lord it over the nation by force in the context of a pluralized state. What is left, therefore, are deft political moves in classical chess board game of revolving power equations.

After General Murtala Mohammed was murdered, General Obasanjo was named Commander-In-Chief with Colonel Musa Yar’ Adua as Chief of Staff and the power broker. From Obasanjo to Alhaji Shehu Shagari was balancing power to the Sokoto Caliphate with Dr. Alex Ekwueme (Igbo) as deputy. Shagari was sacked and General Muhammadu Buhari (Katsina/Sokoto) became head of state with Tunde Idiagbon (Kwara) as second in command.

From General Ibrahim Babangida (Fulani) to Chief Ernest Shonekan (Yoruba) to General Sanni Abacha (Hausa) to General Abdulsalam Abubakar (Fulani) and to Obasanjo (Yoruba), were orchestrated by advance forces.

After June 12 annulment and Chief MKO Abiola’s death, it was uphill task getting Dr. Ekwueme (Igbo) to take over from the Hausa/Fulani tag team. So, the lot fell on Yorubaland. And after Obasanjo, it returned to the Fulani (Musa Yar’Adua). From Yar’Adua to Jonathan (Niger Delta) was not just luck. The Niger Delta crises and the pressure for a Nigerian leader of South-south extraction combined to spring the emergence.

While President Goodluck Jonathan and General Mahummadu Buhari will soon know their fate, truth is that Jonathan’s (South-south) rule is s good as over. In 2011, Igbos voted Jonathan en masse and many were deluded to believe that after Jonathan, it would be the turn of Igbo son or daughter. How some Igbos bought the cheap ploy beats imagination but even now, many still hold that after Jonathan, an Igbo man would move in.

In 2003 when Buhari first made his appearance for the presidency, some of us argued that the future of Igbo politics was on hand and that Igbo leaders should discuss with the PDP and ANPP on power sharing or rotation. Others argued such is anachronistic, that qualifications (whatever that means) should decide who rules. But only greed and sycophancy spoke thus. More than less, Nigerian politics is balancing ethnic, religion and class interests capabilities. No one needs recall the MKO/Kingibe Moslem/Moslem ticket, because it did not test the cause/effect equilibrium.

When we argued in 2003 that 2007/2011 had come, Ohaneze dismissed it off hand and so President Jonathan coasted home without commitment on the future of Igbo political interest – the presidency. Even now, 2015 has come and passed. The presidential election in particular is lost and won without the Igbo as the beautiful bride now but her place of honour can still be protected as her fair due.

Sixteen years since the return of partisan politics in Nigeria, the highest post Igbos have held is Senate president; i.e., Number Three. The South-West has held President, Speaker (Number Four) and now poised for Number Two. The South-south has Number One; the North-East Number One and now enters the North-West.

Ohaneze talks about cargo airport in Enugu and Federal roads that Jonathan failed to build and believing that if he assures them now, they would endorse him shows the level of political immaturity dominant in the region. The culture of quick profits has eaten so deep into the souls of Igbos that everything bases on instant gain/gratifications – the making of dishonorable friends.

As 2015 is playing out, Yoruba leaders are thinking of 2019 presidency. Ohaneze will say impossible but that is political strategy. Politics is give and take but Igbo politicians are ever caught in narrow interests so that the big pictures elude them completely.

Among Nigerian politicians, Buhari is one man that considers others more than average. Since 2003, he has maintained he would run one term only. Many may say he is a politician and would change his mind at the end of one term but one thing I can say for sure is that Buhari is one politician who would support a Nigerian president of Igbo extraction on the bases of equity.

His sense of fairness is incomparable. While other former heads of states collect N300 million yearly allowance, Buhari requested and gets N30 million instead. I make bold to tell Ohaneze that 2019 and beyond is NOW and the best bet for the Igbo in national power equation is Buhari. If the matter is presented him now; not after the elections, he will give it fair hearing.

Injustice rules the nations because it is tit for tat everywhere. There is no way Igbos will push Jonathan now as in 2011 and expect support from the North in future national political contests. Politics is mathematics and strategy rolled into one. If one miscalculates, that is it! 

Dr. Ekwueme midwifed geo-politics and rotation but Obasanjo killed them and Jonathan now oversees final burial. Yet the loser is the Igbo nation more than Ijaw or the Niger Delta, for, at the end, both zones will be marginalized after the marriage of the North and the South-west. But while the South-south can say it has been there, same cannot be said of the Igbo nation. And what a pity for a people that used to be at the commanding heights of Nigerian politics!

It is not enough for Ohaneze to withhold endorsing Jonathan. That will not get Igbo nation a fighting chance in future power game.

It did not lie with Obasanjo to help Igbo presidency nor with Jonathan because the south is one when it comes to that. There is no law that says the three southern zones must share rotational power equally or one after the other. It is same for the North. Northern zones will broker deals with the south and vice versa. If Buhari wins and later steps down, there is no law that says the south-west should not push for the presidency and they will and which is already playing out.  

From Zik’s time to now, many Igbos have paid their dues and practiced statesmanship at its best. It is not the case that traders whose eyes and souls are glued to quick profits and know nothing better than immediate gains even at high future loses tend to typify Igbo people generally which made former defence minister (state), Mrs. Iyabo Anifowoshe say that Igbos should stay in buying and selling and forget national power.

No one gives you power and none gives up power like that. Jonathan will not give up power unless he must, that is, his time expires. From Sokoto to Maiduguri to Mubi to Okene, from Minna to Abeokuta to Lagos; from Enugu to Awka to Owerri to Calabar, Port and to Yenogua, the roads and the faces tell their stories. For one oiled face you see, 60 wrinkled faces fix at you; for two persons that speak well, eight speak ill. In fact, for one PDP member that praises him, two are bitter with President Jonathan.

If Ekwueme says Jonathan took Igbo nation for granted and Obasanjo says the man bites the hand that fed him and Babangida tells us that Jonathan’s government is more corrupt than his, no one can dismiss the charges as ranting of ants or conspiracy borne of injured vanities. Incidentally, the three Nigerian former leaders are PDP venerable fathers. So, we see disillusions coming from within and without and rather unlucky but his is small in comparison.

General Gowon said in 1970 there was no victor, no vanquished. The world held its breath to see if Nigeria would survive the peace. We have, but Igbos have paid unfair political price. Today, the North has Gowon, Shagari, Buhari, Babangida and Abdulsalam as living former heads of state. The South-west has Obasanjo and Shonekan. The South-south has Jonathan while the Igbo nation, one of the three main pillars of Nigerian nation and nationalism has no one to stand for the race at the highest political level. Does this not call for urgent reprieve?

National power game is no sentimental affair. Whether the South-south returns South-east goodwill tomorrow or not is matter of wait and see but what is not in doubt is that Igbos will need the South-west and the North more than less to occupy Aso Rock in the future if the race thinks seriously in that direction and the time to start culturing cross border goodwill is now. 

Ohaneze is too compromised to rise to this challenge. It is left to Ekwueme to invite two Igbo leaders from each of the five states and take Governor Rochas Okorocha and Dr. Ogbonnaya Onu to present Buhari the Igbo declaration: Igbos did not survive Biafra to become fourth class citizens in Nigeria. We want equity. Have our votes now and promise us our chance next.

The 2015 presidential race is over and the next contest is being negotiated. Today, not tomorrow is time to start building the bridges – for many bridges must be crossed to get there!    

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