Shahram Akbarzadeh, Deakin University

US President Donald Trump has not held back on threatening Iran after the targeted killing of General Qassem Soleimani, a veteran of the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s and a key player in expanding Iran’s links with armed groups across Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.

In addition to extreme sanctions, Trump’s latest threat includes hitting 52 military and cultural targets in Iran. As might be expected, the Iranian leadership has doubled down on its anti-US rhetoric and promises of retribution. Soleimani was too important to the regime to let this slide.

As the commander of the Quds Force in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), Soleimani was in direct contact with Hezbollah in Lebanon. He mobilised the militant group to defend Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad against US-backed rebels and armed Islamist groups. Soleimani also visited Moscow in 2016 to make a case for, and coordinate, Russia’s military involvement in Syria.

Read more: How likely is conflict between the US and Iran?

Soleimani made frequent trips to Iraq to bolster the Kurdish and later the Shia militia push-backs against the Islamic State. The recapture of Mosul from the Islamic State in 2016 by the US-backed Iraqi army and the Shia Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) was greeted in Iran with joy.

Soleimani was celebrated as a national hero. The Iranian regime praised him for serving the national security doctrine of offensive defence: defeating ISIS beyond Iran’s borders.

Direct military confrontation is unlikely

It makes sense, then, that the Iranian regime feels compelled to respond to Soleimani’s assassination. Iran cannot afford to let its national hero be slain without retribution. When Soleimani’s daughter asked President Hassan Rouhani, “

But what can Iran do? The Iranian leadership has been woefully aware of its limitations in case of any direct confrontation with the United States. Iran’s armed forces, including the zealot IRGC, are no match for US firepower. Direct military confrontation will amount to suicide, and the Iranian leadership is in no hurry to act crazy, no matter how deeply hurt it may feel.

This fits the pattern of the cat-and-mouse game the IRGC has been playing with the US navy in the Persian Gulf to disrupt oil shipments without raising the stakes too high. Iran threatened on many occasions to block the Strait of Hormuz and seriously hurt the global economy, but never carried through as it could have prompted a military retaliation from the US.

Iran, likewise, had a calibrated response to the re-imposition of crippling US sanctions following Trump’s withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal: a combination of harsh rhetoric and mild action. Tehran sought to look tough but not too threatening to invite a US reprisal.

Read more: Infographic: what is the conflict between the US and Iran about and how is Australia now involved?

But the targeted killing of a celebrated Iranian commander is a game changer, meaning the Iranian response will likely be stronger.

Given the perils of direct confrontation for the Iranian regime, the most likely recourse may be a mobilisation of Iran’s proxy affiliations to exact revenge on the United States, most likely in Iraq.

In fact, Iran does not really need to instruct Shia militia in Iraq to hurt the United States. The Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) also lost its second-in-command (Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis) in the same drone attack that killed Soleimani.

Rocket attacks in recent days on the Green Zone in Baghdad are likely to be just the prelude to a major PMU action against US assets in Iraq.

The turning tide against the US military presence, evident in the Iraqi parliament’s resolution to expel foreign forces, could embolden PMU to step up its operations even further. This would be disastrous for the war-ravaged country, and there is no guarantee that Iran would not be embroiled in the conflict.

Diplomatic responses also have limited appeal

Beyond the military options, Iran also has two immediate diplomatic options. The first is to completely revoke the nuclear deal and resume its nuclear program.

With the US withdrawal from the deal in 2018 – and the Trump administration’s subsequent imposition of a “maximum pressure” strategy on Tehran – Iran already has no incentive to observe its commitments.

And Iran was edging away from the deal even before the latest escalation of tensions. After Soleimani’s assassination, Rouhani said Iran will recommence uranium enrichment and stockpiles, measures that the nuclear deal was designed to seriously limit and monitor.

The Iranian leadership claims it is still in compliance with the general rules set by the International Atomic Energy Agency to govern nuclear activity for civilian use. This move is designed to drive a wedge between the United States and its European allies. By addressing European leaders directly, Rouhani reiterated that Iran would be prepared to return to the deal, but only if Europe, Russia and China could offer a way around US sanctions. This scenario looks extremely unlikely.

Read more: Iran's leader is losing his grasp on power. Does this mean diplomacy is doomed?

Second, Iran could take its case to the United Nations and seek justice through international law.

In the wake of the Soleimani killing, the Iranian ambassador to the UN lambasted the United States for “an illegitimate action” and “an act of aggression”.

This move could resonate with the majority opinion in the United Nations, as well as many US lawmakers and international law experts, who have questioned Trump’s justification for assassinating Soleimani to prevent an imminent threat against the United States.

But going through the UN would be a lengthy and ineffective process as the United States has made a habit of dismissing or ignoring UN resolutions it does not like.In addition, it is difficult to imagine that any non-military option would be enough to satisfy Iran’s impulse for revenge.

Shahram Akbarzadeh, Professor of Middle East & Central Asian Politics, Deputy Director (International), Alfred Deakin Research Institute for Citizenship and Globalisation, Deakin University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Iran says it has identified American targets to be attacked as a revenge for the killing of Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran’s elite Quds Force, in an American airstrike.

A senior Iranian commander, General Gholamali Abuhamzeh, on Saturday, said that some 35 US targets in the Middle East, as well as Tel Aviv, were within reach of Tehran.

Abuhamzeh is the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps in the southern province of Kerman, Reuters reports.

He said: “The Strait of Hormuz is a vital point for the West and a large number of American destroyers and warships cross there.

“Vital American targets in the region have been identified by Iran since a long time ago. Some 35 US targets in the region, as well as Tel Aviv, are within our reach”.

Meanwhile, CNN reports that the US is seeing indications that Iran has stepped up its readiness to launch short- and medium-range ballistic missiles.

Israel has raised its security alert at missions worldwide, and will convene its security cabinet on Sunday in the wake of Iranian threats.

During his visit to Soleimani’s family, President Rouhani restated Iran’s resolution to revenge.

At the weekend, cities across the Canada, Germany, United Kingdom and United States witnessed protests over the killing of Soleimani.

Soleimani has been described as second to only the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in power in Iran.

Qassem Soleimani, leader of the foreign wing of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, was killed in a U.S. airstrike at Baghdad’s international airport Friday, local time, escalating long-brewing animosities between Tehran and Washington.

President Donald Trump authorized the airstrike that killed Soleimani, a top Iranian general who is considered one of the most revered military leaders in the Islamic Republic: “At the direction of the president, the U.S. military has taken decisive defensive action to protect U.S. personnel abroad by killing,” the U.S. Department of Defense said in a statement.

In a tweet, Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif described the strike that killed the general as an act of international terrorism: “The US’ act of international terrorism, targeting & assassinating General Soleimani—THE most effective force fighting Daesh (ISIS), Al Nusrah, Al Qaeda et al—is extremely dangerous & a foolish escalation,” he wrote on Twitter. “The US bears responsibility for all consequences of its rogue adventurism,” he said.

The U.S. has said that the assassination of Soleimani was an attempt to deter attacks against U.S. embassies, service members or diplomats.

Here’s why the death of the general is particularly significant in the intensifying tensions between the U.S. and Iran.

Who was Soleimani?

“He’s probably the most powerful figure that is generally unknown outside Iran and the Middle East. He’s essentially Iran’s viceroy for Iraq,” Jim Phillips, Middle East analyst for conservative think tank the Heritage Foundation, was quoted as saying in a 2015 interview with NBC News.

Soleimani was born in 1957 and spent nearly his entire adulthood in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, which he joined after the 1979 revolution in Iran, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Soleimani rose to prominence during the 1980–’88 Iran-Iraq War, and by 2013 had become one of Iran’s most important figures.

Soleimani was named major general of the Quds Force in 1998 and ran it until his death. The Quds Force has no equivalent in the U.S. but has been described as “analogous to a combined CIA and Special Forces,” according to an article in the New Yorker back in 2013. The Quds Force, which is estimated to consist of about 20,000 personnel, has been designated a terrorist group by the U.S. since 2007, according to reports.

The New Yorker article also described Soleimani as “ the single most powerful operative in the Middle East today,” citing former CIA officer John Maguire.

Reports have had also described Soleiman as second to only the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in power in Iran.

In fact, Khamenei has referred to Suleimani as “a living martyr of the revolution,” and last March expressed hope that he would die as one.

“I hope that Allah the Exalted will reward and bless him, that he will help him live a blissful life and that he will make his end marked by martyrdom,” Khamenei said as he awarded Soleimani the Order of Zulfaqar — the highest miliary honor in Iran that was established in 1856 and had not been awarded since 1979 until it was revived to honor the Quds Force commander.

To some U.S. leaders, Soleimani has been viewed as a shadowy figure. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo referred to him as “dangerous as Islamic State leader Abu al-Baghdadi,” who was killed in a U.S.-led raid in northwestern Syria in late October.

“Qassem Soleimani has the blood of Americans on his hands, Bret, as does the force that he leads, and America is determined each time we find an organization, institution or an individual that has taken the lives of Americans, it is our responsibility,” Pompeo told Fox News’s Bret Baier in an interview back in April 2018, after the U.S. designated Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps a foreign terrorist organization, marking the first time that the U.S. has labeled an entity of another government as a terrorist organization.

It isn’t clear how Iran will respond to the death of the revered leader, but analysts and observers on Friday were speculating that Tehran would consider Soleimani’s death an act of war.

The leader’s death sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.81%   and the S&P 500 index SPX, -0.71%   firmly lower in Friday trade, while U.S. crude-oil prices CL00, -0.02%   and international oil benchmarks BRN00, +0.15%   have been surging to multimonth highs.