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Social assistance cuts are contributing to high rates of HIV, syphilis in Saskatchewan

Wednesday, 15 June 2022 00:54 Written by

Saskatoon is seen across the South Saskatoon River. (Shutterstock)

Alana Cattapan, University of Waterloo and Holly Ann McKenzie, University of Saskatchewan

The province of Saskatchewan leads the country in preventable, opportunistic illnesses enabled by poverty. With new changes to income support programs and increased housing instability, things are getting worse.

Saskatchewan has the highest rate of HIV in Canada, with cases more than three times the national average. New cases are occurring via what’s known as vertical transmission (from mother to child), largely unseen in wealthier nations because such cases are preventable with the use of anti-retroviral drugs.

Injection drug use is the most common mode of transmission in the province, and the numbers are highest among Indigenous people where ongoing legacies of colonialism, policy-induced poverty, intergenerational trauma and substance use are woven together.

Indigenous people have met these challenging conditions with resistance, mobilizing Indigenous-led responses to HIV and advancing Indigenous ways of knowing. But these efforts continue to be undermined by limited funding and provincial government failures to provide sufficient income assistance for those living in economic precarity.

A gloved hand holds a vial that suggests a positive HIV result.
HIV rates are rising in Saskatchewan. (Shutterstock)

Syphilis epidemic

Increasing HIV rates in Saskatchewan are occurring alongside a new epidemic of syphilis.

This is not surprising, because syphilis increases susceptibility to HIV; it’s a harbinger of more HIV infections to come. Syphilis cases are increasing exponentially, to more than 800 cases in 2021, from five cases in 2016. The disease is extremely infectious in its less severe early stages and can, like HIV, be transmitted in pregnancy.

When transmitted in pregnancy (congenital syphilis), syphilis can have dire consequences, including stillbirth and babies born with a range of health issues, among them skeletal and facial anomalies, deafness, blindness and significant neurological problems. In 2016, there were four cases of congenital syphilis in Saskatchewan; four years later there were more than 50.

A newborn baby is seen sleeping on its father's chest.
Babies born with syphilis can have an array of health problems. (Pixabay)

Both HIV and syphilis are opportunistic infections made more likely by the realities of living in poverty. They are both asymptomatic in their early stages, so people may not know they’re infected. The stress of poverty and substance use can contribute to people engaging in more HIV- and syphilis-risk behaviours than they might otherwise.

Once infected, both syphilis and HIV can be treated, but treatment can be intense — syphilis during pregnancy can require multiple appointments and HIV requires daily medication. When people are living without reliable housing and existing on insufficient income, they have to come up with creative strategies to survive and being screened, tested or treated for new infections is not always a top priority.

Benefits reduced

Inadequate rates of social assistance in Saskatchewan have long contributed to the problem, now exacerbated by changes that have recently reduced the total amount of benefits.

Unlike its predecessor, the new program does not fund the actual cost of utilities, instead providing an insufficient fixed amount. Other supports were reduced or eliminated, such as those for clothing, furniture and school supplies.

A man in a dark suit, red tie and wearing glasses stands next a podium.
Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe speaks to media following the tabling of the Saskatchewan budget in March 2022. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Liam Richards

The new program also got rid of direct payment to landlords, which previously ensured that no matter what, rent was always paid. These changes have meant that more people than ever are being evicted, with the Saskatchewan Landlord Association reporting that 30 per cent of people on social assistance did not or could not pay their rent in the months after the change took effect.

In November 2021, the Ministry of Social Services stated it would pay rent and utilities directly for recipients who are at risk of homelessness, but housing organizations say this still isn’t happening.

More precarity, fewer resources

The increasing rates of syphilis and HIV are made worse by these changes to income assistance because people have more precarity and fewer resources than previously.

Although pregnant people and new parents often use various strategies to get what they and their children need to get by, their efforts are undermined by a fragmented system of care, lack of culturally responsive services and limited access to existing interventions. That includes screening and testing for asymptomatic, unidentified and/or untreated infections.

Providing adequate rates of social assistance is key to public health. We should need no other reason to ensure people have enough to live on than reducing the rates of entirely preventable, infectious diseases. But it also makes economic sense.

The costs of treating people who have contracted these diseases, and particularly children, cost substantially more over time than providing adequate social assistance. Slashing rates of social assistance is a costly mistake and the most marginalized pay the most dearly.

People living in poverty work hard to make ends meet and find creative strategies to make the most out of every dollar, but there is a limit. Without sufficient social assistance to meet people’s basic needs, more people are ending up in precarious circumstances, needing to access to more intensive and long-term interventions.

There is a vicious cycle in Saskatchewan of cutting public funding for social assistance to support people experiencing difficulty, only to intervene when things are much, much worse.The Conversation

Alana Cattapan, Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Waterloo and Holly Ann McKenzie, Postdoctoral Fellow, Medicine, University of Saskatchewan

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Texas school shooting: How assault-style rifles and ammunition kill and maim

Monday, 06 June 2022 03:56 Written by

Family and friends follow the casket of 10-year-old Jose Flores after a funeral service in Uvalde, Texas. Flores, an honour student, was killed in the latest elementary school shooting in the United States. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)

R. Blake Brown, Saint Mary’s University

The recent mass shooting that killed 19 children and two teachers at Robb Elementary School in Uvalde, Texas, has sparked another round of the gun control debate.

The shooter reportedly used an AR-15-type rifle, bought just after he turned 18. The AR-15 has been controversial in the United States and Canada for decades, and, in 2020, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government prohibited the weapon.

Assault-style rifle characteristics

Several characteristics of the AR-15 make it dangerous in the wrong hands. It is a semi-automatic firearm, meaning it can be fired repeatedly — once for each pull of the trigger. And it can be reloaded in seconds by removing its cartridge magazine and replacing it with a loaded one.

A less frequently commented upon feature of the AR-15 is that it usually fires a version of the ammunition used by many NATO soldiers to kill enemy troops. As shown in Texas, and many other mass shootings, that ammunition is also extremely effective at harming civilians. The Texas killer purchased 1,600 rounds of the ammunition.

Journalists have debated whether to detail the bodily harms experienced by mass shooting victims. Some believe that failing to describe the physical effects of rifle bullets sanitizes mass shooting events, and suggest that greater public knowledge about victims’ injuries might affect the gun control debate.

People hold a banner that says Ban Assault Weapons Now
Demonstrators hold a banner to protest the visit of former president Donald Trump to the border city after a 2019 mass school shooting in El Paso, Texas. (AP Photo/Andres Leighton)

Dangerous high-velocity ammunition

Ammunition is often defined by its calibre — that is, by the diameter of the projectile fired. Firearm calibres are designated in millimetres or inches. The .223-inch calibre ammunition (or 5.56mm) used in most AR-15s is smaller than the rounds employed in many rifles traditionally used for hunting game, like the .308.

However, the small size of the .223 ammunition doesn’t mean it’s safe. It was developed in response to the American military’s desire in the post-Second World War period to create a small-calibre, high-velocity weapon. The .223 round was light, meaning that soldiers could easily carry many rounds for their rifles.

The firearms industry mass-marketed semi-automatic rifles like the AR-15, and such weapons became increasingly popular by the late 20th century. Unfortunately, rifles firing .223 ammunition also frequently became a favourite weapon of mass shooters.

Defenders of the AR-15 sometimes downplay the dangers of such guns. For example, in 2020, the vice-president of a Canadian gun lobby group, the Canadian Coalition for Firearm Rights, tweeted a picture of her AR-15 and called it a “a low-powered sport rifle.”

 

However, doctors who have treated the victims of mass casualty events have described the serious injuries inflicted by ammunition fired from assault-style rifles.

Graphic detail of injuries and damage

While gun advocates generally avoid discussing the harm that assault-style rifles can cause, there are exceptions.

Before he became

.

Giltaca introduced his 2013 video, focused on wound characteristics, by stating that there was “some misconception about the .223 cartridge” and that he wanted to show “how dangerous that cartridge still is, even though, yes, it’s a small bullet.” He pointed out that unlike rounds fired from handguns, the “.223 travels really, really fast, and that creates some problems should you get hit with it.”

The head of a Canadian firearms group details the dangers of .223 ammunition on his YouTube channel.

Giltaca detailed the various “problems” a human body experienced if shot with a .223 rifle bullet.

For example, he said the bullet produces a “little shockwave,” which leads to a “temporary stretch cavity.” If the bullet strikes a thigh, for example, “it’s going to suck a bunch of air in there.” This leads to “massive tissue disruption and tissue death” because “your skin has been pulled apart and it tears, and it collapses back together again.”

Giltaca concluded by offering his “bottom line.” Rifles firing ammunition like .223 rounds “are really, really dangerous,” for if “you get hit with a rifle round, you’re not coming back.”

Americans have been reminded of this over and over again in mass shootings committed with assault-style rifles. And, unfortunately, Canadians have also learned about the dangers of such guns.

The rifle used in the Montréal massacre in 1989, the now prohibited Mini-14, fired .223 ammunition. Fourteen young women died as a result.The Conversation

R. Blake Brown, Professor, History, Saint Mary’s University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

4 reasons our gas and electricity prices are suddenly sky-high

Sunday, 05 June 2022 05:40 Written by

Shutterstock

Tony Wood, Grattan Institute

Gas users and the incoming government are describing Australia’s sudden east coast energy crisis as “apocalyptic” and “a perfect storm”.

There is no doubt that a rare combination of international and domestic events, together with long-term policy shortcomings, have led to a very nasty position from which there is no easy way out.

Four events have led to the immediate crisis.

1. Coal-fired generators have been failing

First, outages at coal-fired power stations have meant that gas has been called on more than usual.

More than one quarter of coal-fired plants have been offline for much of the year so far, which is far from usual.

The system is designed so that when that happens, gas generators take their place.

2. Australia is running low on gas

Second, the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has been warning of gas supply shortages in the southeast for some time as traditional gas resources, mainly in offshore Victoria, run low.

Onshore gas development in Victoria has been prevented by a succession of state government decisions, and input terminals have been either rejected on environmental grounds or delayed due to financial barriers.

In 2012 the Gillard government rejected the idea of reserving a certain proportion for domestic consumption, as happens in Western Australia.

The history of cheap and plentiful gas in Victoria has made Victorian households and firms more dependent on gas than other Australians, and there has been little move towards electrification.

3. Europe wants non-Russian gas

Third, in their desperation to reduce their dependence on piped Russian gas, European countries have been pushing the international price of liquefied natural gas sky high, buying from countries such as Australia, Qatar and the United States.

Some Australian exporters have received prices four times or more times higher than normal.

4. Suddenly, there’s a cold snap

Finally, a cold snap on Australia’s east coast has brought forward the winter spike in demand for gas for heating.

The immediate impact of the combination of these four events has been a looming shortage of gas on the east coast, including gas to supply power stations.

Industrial gas consumers who do not have the protection of a fixed contract are facing potentially destructive prices.

Thankfully there is no immediate price impact for households using gas, as their retailers have gas supply contracts, although many households are suffering higher electricity prices because gas-fired power stations have had to be pushed into service to replace coal-fired stations.

Quick actions

AEMO has taken action, partly by imposing a wholesale price cap of $40 per gigajoule ahead of forecasts the spot price in Victoria was set to climb $382.

The “shadow price” used to indicate what would have happened were it not for the cap, hit $800 on Tuesday.

And AEMO has triggered the so-called Gas Supply Guarantee Mechanism to secure gas for power generators.

These actions have worked, even though a price of $40 per gigajoule is financially crippling for large industrial consumers, and AEMO cannot magically source gas that isn’t there.

But no overnight answer

Chris Bowen, the new minister for climate change and energy, is already working closely with AEMO and his state and territory counterparts and industry to get complete information and advice.

But as Treasurer Jim Chalmers said on Tuesday, there’s no overnight answer.

The Turnbull Government introduced the Australian Domestic Gas Security Mechanism in 2017 in response to concerns that exports of liquefied natural gas from Queensland might one day create domestic shortages.

It was also concerned that gas producers were selling gas overseas at lower prices than they were asking for at home. The threat of government intervention has generally ensured supply.

But the mechanism is unlikely to be effective in addressing the current problem, for two reasons. First, there are physical limits on getting gas awaiting export in Queensland to Victoria where it is needed.

And second, to the frustration of many gas customers, the mechanism can’t bring down prices, which are set internationally. It deals only with supply.

Thankfully, no false promises

The current crisis illustrates the fundamental policy connection between electricity supply, gas markets, and climate change.

The decision to immediately convene a meeting of the national energy and resources ministers and the relevant agencies is the right first step, but only the beginning of a journey that will involve urgent and sustained reforms to the way Australia’s markets work.

The new government has indeed come to power in the face of a perfect storm, and there are more challenges ahead. Its approach so far has been constructive, measured, and cooperative – and it has resisted the temptation to make promises it can’t keep.

It is to be hoped that this new approach will enable it to navigate through to what will almost certainly be somewhat calmer waters ahead.The Conversation

Tony Wood, Program Director, Energy, Grattan Institute

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

IRONIC: ‘How To Murder Your Husband’ Author on Trial for Husband’s Murder

Saturday, 21 May 2022 09:42 Written by

A writer who penned a piece titled “How To Murder Your Husband” is on trial in the United States for killing her husband.

The accused with the victim
It is a case that has all the hallmarks of classic detective fiction — a huge insurance payout, an impecunious suspect who claims to have amnesia, a missing weapon, and surveillance footage that seems to have caught the culprit red-handed.

But for novelist Nancy Crampton Brophy, it’s not the plot of her latest book; it’s real life in an Oregon court room.

Crampton Brophy, whose “Wrong Never Felt So Right” series of novels include “The Wrong Husband” and “The Wrong Lover,” stands accused of shooting Daniel Brophy, using a gun whose now-missing barrel she bought on eBay.

Prosecutors say the 71-year-old writer was struggling to make payments on her mortgage, but kept up multiple life assurance policies that would pay out a total of $1.4 million in the event of her husband’s demise.

“I do better with Dan alive financially than I do with Dan dead,” she said as she took the stand in Portland this week, The Oregonian newspaper reported.

“Where is the motivation I would ask you? An editor would laugh and say, ‘I think you need to work harder on this story, you have a big hole in it.’”

Prosecutor Shawn Overstreet said security camera footage had captured Crampton Brophy’s minivan outside the Oregon Culinary Institute on June 2, 2018 at almost exactly the time her chef husband was killed in one of the school’s classrooms.

“You were there at the same time that someone happens to be shooting your husband….with the exact type of gun that you own and which is now mysteriously missing,” he said.

Crampton Brophy told the court she has no memory of being there, though acknowledges she must have been, insisting the CCTV images show her in the area because she was driving around getting inspiration for a story.

“This is not a man I would have shot because I had a memory issue. It seems to me if I had shot him, I would know every detail.”

Daniel Brophy, 63, was found dead that morning by students readying for a class. He had been shot twice.

Investigators say the barrel from the Glock handgun used in the slaying was purchased by the suspect on eBay.

That barrel — which would contain damning forensic clues — has never been recovered, despite an exhaustive police search.

Crampton Brophy admits having bought a Glock pistol, which she says was for her husband to protect himself when he went mushroom hunting in the woods, but says the missing barrel was purchased as part of research for an unfinished novel.

“There was a big separation between what was for writing and what was for protection,” she told the court, The Oregonian reported.

Prosecutors say Crampton Brophy, whose “How To Murder Your Husband” remains accessible online and whose books can be bought on Amazon, was facing financial ruin before her husband’s death, but continued to pay into 10 separate life insurance policies.

The blog on murdering a husband discusses methods and motivations for dispatching an unwanted spouse.

These include financial gain and the use of a firearm, although it notes guns are “loud, messy, require some skill.”

“But the thing I know about murder is that every one of us have it in him/her when pushed far enough,” the essay says.

The trial, which began in early April, is ongoing.

Courtesy: AFP

Victims of mass shooting in Buffalo identified

Monday, 16 May 2022 23:01 Written by
 

Victims of mass shooting in Buffalo identified

 

Victims of the Buffalo mass shooting who all lost their lives after a gunman attacked a local supermarket have been identified. 

 

An 18-year-old white suspect shot 13 people, 11 of whom are Black, in a racially motivated attack on Saturday, police said.

 

Ten people, all of whom were Black, were killed in a mass shooting at a supermarket in Buffalo, New York, on Saturday, in an attack authorities are calling a "racially motivated hate crime."

 

The victims included four grocery store employees as well as six customers, several of them regulars at the store, according to the Buffalo Police Department and those who knew them.

 

Three others were wounded in the shooting, two of whom have been treated and released from the hospital, police said.

 

Victims of mass shooting in Buffalo identified

 

A "hero" retired police officer and a 77-year-old community leader are among the 10 victims 

 

Among the lives tragically lost were Ruth Whitfield, 86, who was in Tops Friendly Market after visiting her husband in a nursing home, and Pearl Young, 77, who was described by her loved ones as a woman of faith and a pillar in the community. Young ran a local food pantry for more than 20 years, according to reporter Madison Carr.

 

Authorities late Sunday identified the victims:

Roberta A. Drury, 32, of Buffalo

Margus D. Morrison, 52, of Buffalo

Andre Mackneil, 53, of Auburn, New York

Aaron Salter, 55, of Lockport, New York

Geraldine Talley, 62, of Buffalo

Celestine Chaney, 65, of Buffalo

Heyward Patterson, 67, of Buffalo

Katherine Massey, 72, of Buffalo

Pearl Young, 77, of Buffalo

Ruth Whitfield, 86, of Buffalo

Zaire Goodman, 20, of Buffalo, was treated and released from hospital

Jennifer Warrington, 50, of Tonawanda, New York, was treated and released from hospital

Christopher Braden, 55, of Lackawanna, New York, had non-life-threatening injuries

 

 

 

Why Doug Ford will once again win the Ontario election

Tuesday, 03 May 2022 06:08 Written by

Ontario Premier Doug Ford is seen before his government delivered the provincial 2022 budget at the Ontario legislature. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chris Young

Robert Danisch, University of Waterloo

On June 2, Ontario residents head to the polls to elect a provincial government. The most likely outcome is that Doug Ford will be re-elected premier of the province and his Progressive Conservative party will win the most seats.

Some people in the province will be frustrated or puzzled by such an outcome, especially in light of the hardships so many Ontarians have endured over the last few years during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Ford government, after all, has largely failed in terms of legislative achievements, protecting citizens from COVID-19, shielding people and small businesses from the economic stress of the pandemic and basic responsible leadership. So why will so many people vote for Ford and his team again?

Some political scientists and campaign strategists often tend to misunderstand elections. Politicians like Ford don’t. This explains why he’ll win again.

No platform? No problem!

Let’s first consider the role of party platforms: In 2018, when Ford first ran for premier, the Progressive Conservatives didn’t bother to release a detailed party platform.

In other words, the party didn’t have any major legislative goals in mind. Its one major claim was that government was wasteful and Ford intended to curtail spending. This is a fairly innocuous and oft-repeated conservative mantra. But even without a detailed party platform of any sort, the Conservatives swept into power.

It was a brilliant and audacious strategy for Ford to deploy. What lessons did the Liberals and NDP learn from that election? None.

The NDP recently published its 95-page party platform, with details on rent control, universal pharmacare and money for support workers.

A blonde woman in a blue jacket speaks into a microphone with a Working for You sign behind her.
Ontario NDP leader Andrea Horwath delivers her Ontario provincial election campaign platform in Toronto. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette

The timing and the hoopla about its release six weeks before the election indicated just how important the NDP thinks its platform is to the election. But anyone able to wade through that document is likely a policy wonk or someone already voting NDP. It’s not a document designed to persuade.

If a politician or a political party believes voters cast ballots in favour of policy positions laid out in a party platform, then they badly misunderstand persuasion and what it takes to motivate a voter.

All of the resources that the NDP and the Liberal Party pour into the details and the rationales of their policy positions are misguided if the assumption is that these platforms will result in votes. Clearly these political parties spend resources — time, money and talent — devising their policy initiatives, but elections are not really about policy positions.

What, then, does motivate people to cast a vote for a candidate?

How do candidates make people feel?

The first and perhaps most important point is that elections are communication challenges, and communication is not a rational

.

In other words, if politicians think they’re good communicators because they’re deftly able to convey accurate information about policy positions, then those politicians are likely terrible at communication.

We see this when candidates tweet out their policy positions and remind voters during debates or when door-knocking that they favour affordable housing — or whatever policy position they think will appeal to specific voters.

 

They should stop doing that. Communication is a process of producing an impact on others, not transmitting information on policy goals.

This is the first question political parties need to ask heading into any election campaign: How does their candidate make people feel? And how does the party affiliation of that person influence how people feel about that candidate? These questions get us closer to an explanation of what motivates people to vote.

Persuasion is a strategic art of communication that leverages emotions for motivation. What’s known as the somatic marker hypothesis teaches us that our reasoning is always biased by our emotions, something Greek philosopher Aristotle knew 2,500 years ago when he penned The Rhetoric, his masterpiece on persuasion.

How we feel about New Democrat Andrea Horwath or Liberal Steven Del Duca will influence what we think about their positions, and how we feel about their parties will bias how we feel about them as candidates.

A bald man speaks into a microphone at a podium with a sign that reads Making Meals Cheaper in front of a restaurant called Frank's.
Ontario Liberal Leader Steven Del Duca announces a plan to remove the harmonized sales tax from prepared foods under $20 in Vaughan, Ont. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Yader Guzman

Identity, clear narratives

People also tend to vote according to their group identities. Identity is the second biasing filter for decision-making in elections. The process of “identification” is the communication challenge of making people feel as if they have something in common.

Famed rhetorical theorist Kenneth Burke claimed that “persuasion is identification.”

A bald man in a blue jacket and shirt sips on a beer.
Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole sips a beer while campaigning at a local craft beer brewery in New Brunswick in August 2021. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Ryan Remiorz

Ford is arguably better at this than his rivals for premier, Horwath and Del Duca, but there are many high-profile examples of politicians who have tried and failed to make voters feel like they identify with them. Most recently, the advertisements for former federal Conservative leader Erin O'Toole come to mind, when the party tried to portray him

.

Elections are also about values, stories and rhetorical framing. Conservatives around the world often say they value freedom and have created narratives about how governments infringe upon freedom and are wasteful. Their policy positions, when they do have them, tend to manifest or make clear their commitment to the value of freedom.

Ontario’s left-leaning parties lack any similar, larger narrative. They don’t clearly champion a coherent and inspiring set of values, and they don’t make us feel hopeful about the future.

That’s why they’re going to lose again, even though their policy positions would likely do a lot of good for a lot of people in the province of Ontario.The Conversation

Robert Danisch, Professor, Department of Communication Arts, University of Waterloo

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

US Sends Artillery To Ukraine To Destroy Russian Firepower

Friday, 29 April 2022 04:36 Written by
Ukrainian soldiers stand on an armoured personnel carrier (APC), not far from the front-line with Russian troops, in Izyum district, Kharkiv region on April 18, 2022, during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Anatolii Stepanov / AFP
Ukrainian soldiers stand on an armoured personnel carrier (APC), not far from the front-line with Russian troops, in Izyum district, Kharkiv region on April 18, 2022, during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Anatolii Stepanov / AFP

 

The push by the United States to send artillery to Ukraine aims to degrade Russian forces — not only on the immediate battlefield but over the longer term, according to US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and military experts.

The United States, France, Czech Republic and other allies are sending scores of the long-range howitzers to help Ukraine blunt Russia’s mounting offensive in the eastern Donbas region.

Backed by better air defense, attack drones and Western intelligence, the allies hope that Kyiv will be able to destroy a large amount of Russia’s firepower in the looming showdown.

READ ALSO: Russia Shoots Down Two Ukrainian Drones Near Border – Governor

After returning from Kyiv, where he met Ukraine defense chiefs and President Volodymyr Zelensky, Austin told journalists in Poland early Monday that Washington’s hopes are larger than that.

Russia “has already lost a lot of military capability, and a lot of its troops, quite frankly. And we want to see them not have the capability to very quickly reproduce that capability,” Austin said.

“We want to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can’t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine.”

‘War of attrition’

That is a shift from Washington’s initial approach, when they simply hoped to help prevent Moscow’s seizure of the Ukrainian capital and the overthrow of Zelensky’s government.

In fact, aided by anti-aircraft and anti-armor missiles supplied by the United States and European allies, Ukrainian troops forced the Russian military to withdraw from northern Ukraine within six weeks of the February 24 invasion.

But Moscow now controls significant swathes of eastern and southern Ukraine, apparently aiming to expand to the center of the country by sending in more troops and equipment.

Their plan, experts believe, is to use long-range shelling to drive back most of Ukraine’s forces and only then send in ground troops and tanks to secure the land.

Ukraine’s best option is to fight back with superior artillery — backed by protection from air assaults — to destroy Russian firepower, according to Mike Jacobson, a US civilian expert in field artillery.

Jacobson predicted that this would lead to a “war of attrition” in which Ukraine, with ally-supplied equipment with longer ranges and more accurate targeting, could stop the Russians cold.

“I believe that superior artillery will decrease the Russians’ ability to sustain this fight,” Jacobson told AFP.

Phillips O’Brien, a University of St. Andrews professor of strategic studies who posts daily analyses of the war on Twitter, wrote that the coming artillery fight will resemble World War I, each side trying to wear the other down with grueling shelling.

The Russian army “is considerably smaller and suffered major equipment losses. Ukrainian army is smaller, but about to be much better armed,” he said.

“Russia needs to change that dynamic or it loses the attrition war.”

Rapid deployment

The US and allies are moving fast with the supplies to take advantage of the slow regrouping of Russian forces after their setback in northern Ukraine.

Already at least 18 of the 90 towed artillery pieces Washington promised in the past two weeks have been delivered to Ukrainian forces, and more are being rushed in early this week, according to a Pentagon official.

Washington is also supplying nearly 200,000 rounds of howitzer ammunition, and is arranging for ammunition supplies for the Russian-made artillery that Ukraine forces currently operate.

Some 50 Ukraine troops have already been trained to use the US howitzers, and more are being trained this week.

Meanwhile France is sending its ultra-advanced Caesar mobile howitzer, and the Czech Republic is delivering its older self-propelled howitzers.

Canada too is sending howitzers and advanced, guided “Excalibur” shells that can travel more than 40 kilometers and deliver munitions precisely on target.

“The fight they’re in in the Donbas is going to be heavily reliant on what we call long-range fires, artillery particularly,” a senior US defense official said.

“That’s why we’re focusing them on getting them artillery as well as tactical UAVs,” the official said.

That was a reference to allies supplying “suicide drones,” bomb-armed unmanned aerial vehicles that can be directed for hours to search out and then explode themselves on Russian targets.

But no one is saying such a strategy will allow Ukraine to fully drive out the Russians.

If Kyiv does prevail in the artillery showdown, it will “eventually force them (Russia) to either escalate or negotiate realistically,” said Jacobson.

“Russia will be frustrated but not defeated.”

 

AFP

Disoriented Joe Biden sticks out his hand to shake thin air and talk to himself after making speech where he falsely claimed to have been a professor for four years (Photos/Videos)

Saturday, 16 April 2022 00:44 Written by

Disoriented Joe Biden sticks out his hand to shake thin air and talk to himself after making speech where he falsely claimed to have been a professor for four years (Photos/Videos)


Footage of the incident has been shared on social media prompting backlash against the White House for Biden's apparent cognitive decline.


See the video and some reactions below...

 

Disoriented Joe Biden sticks out his hand to shake thin air and talk to himself after making speech where he falsely claimed to have been a professor for four years (Photos/Videos)

Disoriented Joe Biden sticks out his hand to shake thin air and talk to himself after making speech where he falsely claimed to have been a professor for four years (Photos/Videos)

Disoriented Joe Biden sticks out his hand to shake thin air and talk to himself after making speech where he falsely claimed to have been a professor for four years (Photos/Videos)

 

 

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